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Biases in Group Forecasting

Biases in Group Forecasting
Typ:Masterarbeit, Bachelorarbeit

Simon Kloker

A highly connected world opens plenty of new possibilities. One rising phenomena is the “wisdom of the crowds” that can be efficiently used, since the web lowered cost of information collecting and the reaching of large groups. An application of this potential is for example group forecasting. Group forecasting can happen from relatively small numbers as in Delphi Studies to an extensive set of participants as in polls. However there exist a number of other methods, which advantages and disadvantages each. Methods as Prediction Markets generates sometimes impressively accurate results, but also recently perform only average or below. So it is to assume that not only the method, but also the context of the question, the presentation of the question and the question itself have influence on the outcome.

The reasons for failure of prediction markets are not yet completely uncovered. One reason may lay in the cognitive restrictedness of human information processing and decision making. Heuristics (mental shortcuts) may have an effect and lead to biased results.

Aim of this thesis is to investigate how prediction market design that targets cognitive processes can affect the performance of group decision methods.

Language: English or German