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Who’s the best now? – Time for a new Literature Review on Crowd Forecasting

Who’s the best now? – Time for a new Literature Review on Crowd Forecasting
Typ:Masterarbeit
Datum:vergeben
Betreuer:Simon Kloker

Background

Polling, Prediction Markets, Surveys, Delphi Studies, Experts’ opinions, or any combination? Which is the best method? Crowd forecasting has evolved rapidly and originated plenty of new methods, since people use the internet in a growing manner. Aim is leveraging the “crowd’s intelligence” to make forecasts – and especially better forecasts than the others. Several studies in the last years discussed which of them the best forecasting method is. However, the results revealed different, sometimes contradicting results. Who is finally right, who’s the best? Or is the answer not that simple?

Task

The aim of the thesis is to conduct an extensive literature review in the field of crowd forecasting with a focus on the findings of the last years.

Contact

In case of any questions, contact Simon Kloker (simon.kloker@kit.edu).
To apply for the topic please attach a current transcript of records and a small paragraph regarding your motivation (3-5 sentences) to your mail to simon.kloker@kit.edu.