Polling, Prediction Markets, Surveys, Delphi Studies, Experts’ opinions, or any combination? Which is the best method? Crowd forecasting has evolved rapidly and originated plenty of new methods, since people use the internet in a growing manner. Aim is leveraging the “crowd’s intelligence” to make forecasts – and especially better forecasts than the others. Several studies in the last years discussed which of them the best forecasting method is. However, the results revealed different, sometimes contradicting results. Who is finally right, who’s the best? Or is the answer not that simple?
The aim of the thesis is to conduct an extensive literature review in the field of crowd forecasting with a focus on the findings of the last years.
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