Just before the state elections in Thuringia and Saxony (September 1, 2024) and Brandenburg (September 22, 2024), polls are showing high vote shares for the AfD and the newly founded BSW. These trends are fueling public debates about the causes and drivers of the expected party-political upheavals in the upcoming state elections. Time and again, differences between the so-called new (formerly East German) and old (formerly West German) federal states, but also between urban and rural areas or different age groups are used as explanations.

In the current Tagesspiegel article, the authors draw on current survey data from the SOSEC panel and analyze these much-discussed potential dividing lines. In an often highly emotional debate, they make an important journalistic contribution – well-founded and supported by data. Which of these distinctions are best suited to better understanding current trends and divergences in party preferences?