Motivation

The spread of misinformation presents democracy with threatening challenges and leads to tense and uncertain social situations.

Particularly with regard to tendencies that endanger democracy, a sudden tipping of the mood can have devastating consequences. This leads to a rejection not only of individual political decisions but of the political system as a whole, including its democratic institutions.

The attempted attack on the Reichstag building (2020) or the storming of the U.S. Capitol (2021) illustrate the simultaneity of democracy-threatening polarization moments in Germany and the United States and show how important it is to get a more precise picture of these democracy-threatening tendencies.

Using an innovative research design, tipping points are simulated to study opinion formation and polarization in different populations and thus depict (potential) developments in real societies.

Goals and Approach

Using representative panel surveys and agent-based models of opinion dynamics, SOSEC continuously monitors and evaluates how public sentiment develops in critical situations. Participants (3,000 in the United States and 1,500 in Germany) of the study have been asked to respond to the same set of questions in weekly to biweekly intervals since November of 2022. The SOSEC team matches the survey data with sentiment data from Twitter/X as well as with news-events that might explain shifts in the collective sentiment.

The research project compares developments in the U.S. and Germany. This can lead to a deeper understanding of which (media) events trigger and drive polarization effects and how these effects can be counteracted in the future. Demographic data can be used to identify differences in different social groups - for example, sorted by age, occupation, income groups, regions, tenants/homeowners or social milieus.

Once this research project has been successfully completed, it will be possible to identify connections between disinformation and polarization effects and to take targeted action against them in order to weaken forces that threaten democracy and to prevent tipping points in society.

Innovation and Perspectives

SOSEC was conceived with an innovative research design: Representative panels in Germany and the USA are surveyed in a longitudinal study. Using the method of experience sampling from psychology, the social mood is continuously surveyed. Through an innovative matching with social sentiment through Twitter and news-event monitoring, SOSEC presents a novel type of empirical social sentiment study.

Project Partner Research

FZI Forschungszentrum Informatik, Alfred Landecker Foundation

Thesis

Kerem Yilmaz: Social Sentiment in Crises – Examining Shocks and Tipping Points (Master’s Thesis, July 2023)

Clara Tillmann: Examination of Polarization Trends in Germany and the U.S. (Bachelor’s Thesis, August 2023)